Thursday, October 16, 2008

Hockey thoughts

Watched most of the Oilers game tonight. I got to wondering three things: 1 - What the hell is Jason Strudwick doing in the NHL? This guy is so far from the definition of NHL caliber it's scary. Note to Edmonton: trade Roloson for a defenseman. 2 - Sheldon Souray has a contract worth $25 million or so, a contract he earned by having a ridiculous slapshot. Slapshots are typically even more effective when unleashed as a one-timer. So why is Souray not on the one-timer side of the Oilers' power play? 3 - Marc (thanks for dropping the -Antione) Pouliot is playing on the fourth line. I see the value of having Kyle Brodziak on the fourth line, and maybe a guy like Zack Stortini completes the line beautifully, but Pouliot has way too much talent to play fourth-line minutes exclusively. The guy was a catalyst in the second and third period, working hard on the forecheck and not only creating offense, but also keeping possessions alive. He was more effective than anyone from the Oilers' vaunted second line. The Oilers have to find an offensive role for this guy.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

NHL Western Conference preview

Let’s face it, most NHL teams aren’t exactly built like Megan Fox. They’ve got flaws, and for all but one team, those flaws will prove fatal. Here now, a look at each team’s Best Asset, Fatal Flaw, and just for fun, a “What if?” category that asks the question that’s on nobody’s mind. The Western Conference ANAHEIM DUCKS Best Asset: Here’s what you get with Anaheim: stifling defense. End of list. Featuring the most underrated goalie not named Chris Osgood in the history of the game (J-S Giguere) and two first-ballot Hall of Fame defensemen (Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronged [though not on my ballot]), the Ducks won’t get run out of many rinks. Kent Huskins has become a revelation heading into his third season on the Ducks’ blue line, while Francois Beauchemin, Sean O’Donnell provide stability. Flat out, when Pronger is playing his best, this is probably the best defense corps in the league. Fatal Flaw: The other thing you get with Anaheim is an offense that’s one player deep. Ryan Getzlaf is a star-in-the-making after his breakout playoff performance during the Ducks’ 2007 Stanley Cup Run and his 82-point effort last season. The Ducks need rookie Bobby Ryan to blossom, and he can’t do it fast enough. What If the 2005 NHL Entry Draft were re-drafted today? Considering the 222nd pick in the draft (Kyle Cumiskey) has made a bigger impact on Colorado’s blue line than second-overall pick Ryan has made with the Ducks, I don’t think it’s a stretch the think Ryan drops a few spots. Probably even out of the first round Projected finish: 5th CALGARY FLAMES Best Asset: Toughness. No matter what else happens in Calgary this season, this will be a tough team to play against. Whether Todd Bertuzzi can regain his scoring touch (or better yet, his All-Star form) or not, he’s a big body that makes opposing defensemen miserable. Toss Hart Trophy candidate Jarome Iginla into the mix, along with Curtis Glencross, Dustin Boyd and David Moss types, and this is a team that will look to grind their opposition into submission. Opposing forwards don’t get much of a break either, facing the likes of Dion Phaneuf and Robyn Regehr when seeking entry into the offensive zone. Fatal Flaw: The Flames have never truly addressed the fact they’ve never provided a top-flight centre for Iginla to play with. Newcomer Mike Cammalleri should help to ease Iginla’s scoring burden, but even if he does, who from the bottom three lines can score? What If the Flames hadn’t made a Cup run in 2004? This team faces great expectations in a city that demands a winner, and the Flames have been stagnant since that improbable run. Anything short of a trip to the Conference Final will probably end GM Darryl Sutter’s honeymoon. Projected finish: 8th CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS Best Asset: Vitality. The Blackhawks’ resurgence last season was the best thing to happen to the NHL since Sidney Crosby. Maybe even better. Leading that resurgence was a pair of rookies that exceeded all expectations last season, and have now taken over this team as their own. Sophomores Patrick Kane (last year’s rookie of the year) and Jonathan Toews (the team’s newly-anointed captain) appear poised to lead the Hawks into the post-season for the first time since 2002 (and just the second time since 1997). The have help, too, in the form of Martin Havlat, Dustin Byfuglien, Patrick Sharp and just maybe 2008 first rounder Kyle Beach. The defense corps is young, seems to get better literally every game, and will get a nice boost from free agent signing Brian Campbell. Fatal Flaw: The hype could kill this team before they get off the ground. It seems the whole hockey world is abuzz about this team, and anything short of the playoffs will be seen as a disappointment. Lucky for them, most folks in Chicago will be distracted in October by baseball’s Cubs and White Sox’s playoff runs. What If Jeremy Roenick had never left? How much fun would a Roenick-Toews-Kane line be? Projected finish: 7th COLORADO AVALANCHE Best Asset: Joe Sakic is back for another season, which is great not only for the Avalanche, but also for the league. Every day Sakic is a part of the National Hockey League is a day the league is better. He leads an attack that features Milan Hejduk, Paul Stastny, Marek Svatos, Ryan Smyth and Wojtek Wolski. Make no mistake, it’s a potentially high-octane offence. The team has struggled to live up to their offensive potential in recent seasons, and if they can’t find the back of the net, the may find themselves left behind in the West. Fatal Flaw: Instability between the pipes. Jose Theodore has practically been the definition of inconsistent since winning the Hart Trophy a million years ago. That trend continued during his Colorado tenure. With Theodore out the door, the equally inconsistent Andrew Raycroft and Peter Budaj will battle for number one duties. What If TJ Hensick and TJ Galiardi skated on a line together? Projected finish: 11th COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS Best Asset: Hands down, it’s Rick Nash. He’s the second-highest scoring player in franchise history, and barring injury, should pass David Vyborny’s franchise-leading 317 points this season. And, that’s about it. If both Derick Brassard and Jakub Voracek make the team, as expected, the Jackets will have five new faces on their first three lines (six if Nikita Filatov comes over from Russia). The defense corps has been overhauled, and it really can seem as though Nash is the only returning player. GM Scott Howson has certainly started to rebuild this team in his image, but the fine folks of Columbus may want to experience playoff hockey some time soon-- and Nash absolutely would like to. Fatal Flaw: Howson’s efforts are commendable, but everyone knows stability is key to being a successful hockey team. Howson will need to find a way to strike a balance between filling his team’s many holes, and keeping a cohesive unit in the dressing room. What If Kris Russell were taking a regular shift in the AHL? Any chance that would help his development more than playing 14 minutes a game? Projected finish: 12th DALLAS STARS Best Asset: It’s always nice to have a living legend walking through the dressing room, and the Stars have just that in Mike Modano. The face of the franchise ever since he was drafted, Modano has done it all in Dallas (and previously Minnesota), and is an invaluable asset for the younger players in Dallas. Brenden Morrow learned from Modano, and enjoyed a career year in 2008 after taking over as team captain. The rough and tumble Morrow joins a cast of Stars that includes newly-acquired Sean Avery, Steve Ott and Krys Barch that makes me think the people Dallas like their hockey the way we do in Canada-- hard-nosed, rock ‘em sock ‘em, fight-for-every inch kind of hockey. The Stars will offer lots of that as they look to take the next step in the Western Conference/ Fatal Flaw: Fabian Brunnstrom. Over-hyped rookie and high-priced free agent all in one! Brunnstrom didn’t look all that special at the Traverse City Rookie Tournament, and it’s doubtful he’ll make the kind of impact all the fuss over him suggests he should. What If a recent trend holds up? The Stars will win the Stanley Cup, that’s what. Before winning the Stanley Cup last spring, the Red Wings were eliminated in the Western Final in 2007 by eventual champion Anaheim. The Ducks had lost the 2006 Western Conference Final before winning the Stanley Cup in 2007. Projected finish: 1st DETROIT RED WINGS Best Asset: Nicklas Lidstrom. Closely followed by Chris Osgood, Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Marian Hossa, Niklas Kronwall, Brian Rafalski… you get the idea. The Red Wings are once again the defending champions and are once again poised to be the class of the league, and the talk of the town. It’s not even just possible this year’s edition is better than last year’s. On paper, it’s not even a question. Hell, coach Mike Babcock’s hair even looks better this season. Fatal Flaw: Really the only possible thorn in the Wings’ side this season is the dreaded Stanley Cup hangover. But I just can’t figure it happening. What If Detroit and Chicago hold a season-long battle for the Central Division title? Better yet, an epic playoff series? It just might be enough to convince ESPN to start paying attention to hockey again. Projected finish: 2nd EDMONTON OILERS Best Asset: Youth was served in the Alberta capital a year ago, and the Oilers’ youth movement will continue this year. Andrew Cogliano and Sam Gagner proved to be game-breaking players, while the likes of Robert Nilsson, Zack Stortini and Kyle Brodziak carved out vital roles with the club. The Oilers are hoping their young guns can expand on the success they enjoyed last season. Tom Gilbert, technically a rookie last season, had a tremendously successful rookie year, and should be able to take a giant leap in 2008-09. While he‘s a long shot to make it, Gilbert will absolutely be auditioning this year for the 2010 US Olympic team. Fatal Flaw: Youthful exuberance nearly carried this team to an unlikely playoff berth a year ago, and the Oilers need this youthful group to take the next step this season. If not, all bets are off. With a full season of Sheldon Souray, and the addition of Lubomir Visnovsky, the Oilers will have some extra experience on defense, which should make life easier for Mathieu Garon and Dwayne Roloson, as well as lessening the burden Gilbert, Ladislav Smid and Dennis Grebeshkov will face.. What If Sheldon Souray had been healthy last season? Certainly the Oilers’ power play would have been better than 21st and almost as certainly, the Oilers would have gained four more points in the standings. Projected finish: 6th LOS ANGELES KINGS Best Asset: It’s hard to put a positive spin on life as a King the last four or five seasons, but if a silver lining is to be found, it is the collection of high draft picks the Kings have accumulated for being so bad. In the past four drafts, the Kings had five picks in the first 13 spots, plus they’ve acquired Jack Johnson, the third player chosen in the 2005 draft. The Kings appear set to cash in on those picks. With Quebec League-star Jonathan Bernier, plus Johnson, 2008 second-overall pick Drew Doughty, Colten Tuebert (2008, 13th), and Thomas Hickey (2007, 4th) all in the fold, the Kings’ defense will improve rapidly once these players are all ready for full-time duty. Anze Kopitar is the fifth player the Kings drafted with the aforementioned picks. Fatal Flaw: Impatience. The Kings struck gold when Alex Frolov and Kopitar were able to move from the draft podium to the starting lineup, and they were very lucky to do so. The Kings will have to be patient with their young defensemen. Los Angeles sports fans don’t leave the sunshine to watch a losing team. It’s a difficult balance to strike. What If the Kings had the first pick in June, and were able to draft Steven Stamkos ahead of Doughty? It’s a question that will be asked for a long, long time, and will only get louder if Stamkos helps to guide the Lightning back to the playoffs this year. Projected finish: 14th MINNESOTA WILD Best Asset: GM Doug Risebrough, easily. That said, he’s got this team playing the kind of hockey that makes even me change the channel. Well, he’s got Jacques Lemaire doing it. Anyway, the Wild play great defense. What a shock. They have great goaltending. The no longer have Brian Rolston to score the kinds of game-breaking goals he scores. And they have a bitter… Fatal Flaw: Let’s move that last sentence here, and start over with the bitter Marian Gaborik. This guy deserves to be playing fire-wagon hockey alongside a second-coming-of-Adam-Oates type (see Backstrom, Nicklas, WSH). That Gaborik spends 80 games each year grinding and mucking his way through defensive systems is an absolute travesty. I don’t use this phrase very often, because I happen to really like the direction the NHL is heading, but the Wild are single-handedly trying to ruin hockey. I hate everything about them because of it. What If Marian Gaborik had even one centre worth playing with, in his entire career? What would this guy be doing alongside Joe Sakic? I don’t think 150-170 points is totally out of the question. For the love of hockey, Doug, loosen the reigns! Projected finish: 3rd NASHVILLE PREDATORS Best Asset: Seriously, the fact Alexander Radulov spurned this team and bolted for greener pastures in the Russian Continental League. If that’s not a “we just got punked” rallying cry, I don’t know what is. Other than Radulov flipping the bird to his former team mates, the Preds’ best asset is a fine young defense corps. Dan Hamhuis, Ryan Suter and Shea Weber are three of the best defensemen in the league. Hands down. They all play different parts, but they play them masterfully. Above, I mentioned Edmonton’s Tom Gilbert will be auditioning for the US Olympic team this season, in Nashville, Suter will be auditioning to captain that team. He’s a joy to watch, and he will make it his life goal to make Radulov’s life hell whenever he returns from Russia. Fatal Flaw: Radulov was really the only guy that could put pucks in the net. Jason Arnott and J-P Dumont both had strong seasons, and Martin Erat and David Legwand are sort of dangerous, but after that this team is looking at Vernon Fiddler and Radek Bonk to supply offense. That’s not going to happen. What If the Predators had been in Winnipeg or Hamilton from the start? Would anyone actually have noticed the expansion? Would fans have been spared a decade of Barry Trotz hockey and those mustard-yellow jerseys? Clearly, things would be better. Projected finish: 10th PHOENIX COYOTES Best Asset: The Coyotes seem to have a very clear plan in place, with regard to their rebuilding effort. Shane Doan is a great captain, and the right kind of player to build this team around. Recent drafts have produced Kyle Turris, Peter Mueller, Mikkel Boedker, Martin Hanzal, Enver Lisin, the list is seemingly endless. The Coyotes have done a very good job (outside of botching Blake Wheeler’s handling) of identifying the best player available, and making good use of the pick. All of those players are expected to not only make the team this year, but also to contribute at a high level. The Coyotes believe they could be a playoff team this year, but even if they’re not, they should be a fun team to watch-- if only because of Daniel Carcillo. Fatal Flaw: For all the talk about the success the Coyotes have had at the draft table, none of their selections from the last five drafts has played more than one full season in the NHL. Hanzal, Mueller, Daniel Winnick and Keith Yandle all exceeded expectations as rookies, and now must live up to new expectations. What If the Coyotes hadn’t plucked Ilya Bryzgalov off the waiver wire last season? Bryzgalov sparked a turnaround that gave the Coyotes hope until late March. This year, his team will have to pick him up. Projected finish: 9th ST LOUIS BLUES Best Asset: Well, it was Erik Johnson before he wrecked his knee and is likely to miss the entire season. David Perron and David Backes are likely to become valuable forwards, though neither projects beyond the second line. If TJ Oshie sticks with the club, it should be interesting to see how he develops throughout the season. Fatal Flaw: Overall lack of talent. This is an absolutely bad team. Ownership and team president John Davidson have the team heading in the right direction, but they’re at least two years away from being serious playoff contenders. What If the Blues can move pending unrestricted free agents Keith Tkachuk, Andy McDonald, Dan Hinote and Manny Legace for another pile of draft picks? The Blues have made 29 selections in the last three drafts, and will be set up well for the 2009 and 2010 drafts by moving some “rental players” at the deadline. Projected finish: 15th SAN JOSE SHARKS Best Asset: Evgeni Nabokov has quietly become one of the most reliable goalies in the league. He gives the Sharks a chance to win every gave, and allows them to play the defensive style they seem to thrive in. The Sharks have re-built their blue line bringing in veterans Rob Blake, Dan Boyle and Brad Lukowich. The newcomers should maintain the expected level of play, while bolstering an anaemic back-end offense. Fatal Flaw; Often, the Sharks’ lack of a top-end puck-moving defenseman was seen as their Achilles’ Heel. If Blake, Doyle and Lukowich are the answer, the team’s new area of concern needs to be a potentially impotent offense. Outside of Joe Thornton, the Sharks’ forwards are unproven, inconsistent, or offensively un-offensive. Among other ifs, if Milan Michalek can develop into the offensive player the Sharks hope he can, and if Jeremy Roenick can find a fountain of youth, and if Patrick Marleau can appear even moderately interested, and if Jonathan Cheechoo-- well, let’s stay within the realm of reality here. What If former head coach Ron Wilson wasn’t the problem? If this team can’t get over the hump soon, fans at the Shark Tank are staring down a rebuilding effort in the near future. Projected finish: 4th VANCOUVER CANUCKS Best Asset: Roberto Luongo. His track record speaks for himself. He’s so important to this team, the Canucks took an unusual step, and became the first team since the 1947-48 Canadiens to name their goaltender their captain. Fatal Flaw: The phrase “unusual step” can be applied to a few too many things happening in Vancouver these days. This team has no one to put pucks in the net other than the soon-to-be free agent Sedin twins… you know, this team is so bad I’m not even going to write anymore. What If the Todd Bertuzzi incident had never happened (which seems to be the case in Calgary lately)? This team has been on such an incredible downward spiral ever since. It’s actually pretty sad. Projected finish: 13th